In Pakistan, Drones Won't Be Enough
Posted 11/29/2010 06:55 PM ET
War On Terror: Three troubling developments in Pakistan call into question the effectiveness of the administration's drone-centered strategy there. It may be time to rethink it.
To be sure, the graveyard of "No. 3" al-Qaida figures eliminated by drones is deep. But many of these "kills" have turned out to be midlevel operatives outside al-Qaida's inner circle.
The fact remains that no top-tier al-Qaida leader has been successfully targeted. Those still at large include: Osama bin Laden; his son, Saad bin Laden; Ayman al-Zawahiri; Adnan El Shukrijumah; Adam Gadahn; Suleiman al-Gaith; Mahfouz al-Walid; and Saif al-Adel.
The FBI's Most Wanted Terrorists list today is almost identical to its pre-9/11 list. The only difference is these monsters are in Pakistan instead of Afghanistan.
It bears repeating: Almost a decade after ordering the 9/11 attacks on America, al-Qaida's core leadership has not been decapitated from its body of followers. It's still intact and still calling the shots.
Take al-Adel, recently appointed by bin Laden to command al-Qaida's war against the West. He's believed to be behind the terror group's new "death by a thousand cuts" strategy of launching smaller, more frequent attacks — including Mumbai-style terror across Europe and cargo bombings of planes over U.S. cities.
As they continue to plot against us, we're going after these al-Qaida leaders in virtually the same way we did before 9/11 — lobbing missiles at them, only this time from drones instead of ships.
Over the past two years alone, the U.S. has carried out an astounding 154 drone missile strikes in Pakistan. Yet not a single one hit a truly high-value al-Qaida target.
Now the administration, according to the Washington Post, has asked the Pakistani government to let the CIA expand its target range from Pakistan's tribal region to areas around the city of Quetta, where intelligence suggests al-Qaida and Taliban leaders are holed up.
Islamabad reportedly has turned down the request, citing growing anger over civilian casualties from other drone strikes.
Meanwhile, Pakistan's military has further delayed its long-promised offensive against terrorists in North Waziristan, despite $2 billion in U.S. military aid for the campaign.
Washington has pushed for several years for Islamabad to launch a major military operation in the region, in lieu of our own boots on the ground there.
But Pakistan wouldn't budge, blaming a lack of resources. Now that the army has its money, it still won't march into the region.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman, Adm. Mike Mullen, said last month that he was assured by Pakistan's army chief that there will be an offensive in the tribal region along the Afghan border.
Only the Pakistani is still not moving his forces into the region. The Pakistani government this week indicated it might delay the offensive by four to six months.
So here's what we're left with: an ineffective air campaign against al-Qaida's leadership, and no ground campaign at all against it.
The White House, in the words of security aide John Brennan, says it will continue to rely on "the scalpel" instead of "the hammer" to dismantle al-Qaida in Pakistan.
Clearly more is needed. It can start with tougher diplomacy. Tying aid closer to Islamabad's cooperation and anti-terror results is an obvious step.
In addition, the White House must issue a stern warning to Pakistan's leaders: Should a major U.S. attack be linked back to Pakistan, the U.S. will declare their country a terror state and deny it all aid — military and economic — as well as reinstate sanctions.
The risks are too great to continue to let this putative ally play a double game.
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